Clayton, not dead, and the data since you asked has actually gone the other way. AirDNA forecasts U.S. short-term rental occupancy averaging 57.4 percent in 2026, slightly above the pre-pandemic average of 57.0 percent, with listings and demand both growing about 2.7 percent and RevPAR up roughly 2.9 percent on stronger nightly rates. That is a market that normalized, not one that collapsed. You asked in March 2024, peak "Airbnbust" news cycle. Coming out of 2021, listings piled in faster than travel demand grew, occupancy and revenue per available night compressed, and people who had underwritten 2021 numbers got hurt. By 2026 supply growth slowed to roughly match demand and operators got pricing power back. One dispersion note that matters to you: the strongest RevPAR growth this year is in markets where supply tightened, San Francisco up about 12 percent, while the heaviest new supply is expected in affordable small-city, rural and mid-size markets. Cheap entry price and crowded competition tend to arrive together. So the honest headline is not dead. It is that the easy money is gone and the underwriting has to be real. Here is the rule that has protected people through every cycle of this asset class. Never buy a short-term rental that only works at short-term rents. Price it so it still carries itself, or comes close, on long-term rent as a floor. If the deal needs 70 percent occupancy at premium nightly rates to survive, you have not bought a rental, you have bought a one-location hospitality business with a mortgage. Because the biggest risk here is not the travel market. It is regulation. A city council can vote your use out of existence and nobody compensates you. That is not a tail risk, it is the base case in dozens of markets. Here is the good news for you specifically. Indiana has a state statute on this, Indiana Code 36-1-24, that limits how far local governments can go. Under it, an owner occupied short term rental is a permitted residential use and cannot be disallowed by zoning in any district that allows residential use. For property that is not owner occupied, a town can require a special exception, special use or a zoning variance, but it cannot interpret or enforce zoning in a way intended to, or having the effect of, prohibiting or unreasonably restricting short term rentals. It also caps permits at one per property, expiring after a year, with the initial fee capped at 150 dollars, and defines a short term rental as one under thirty days through a rental platform. That is stronger footing than investors in most states have. But read the limit carefully: it restrains units of government, not your homeowners association. Private subdivision covenants routinely ban short-term rentals outright, and covenanted subdivisions are common around St John. So pull three documents before you write an offer, not after: the town's short-term rental ordinance and permit process, the recorded covenants and HOA rules for that subdivision, and the county's innkeeper tax registration requirements. Financing, briefly. Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed at 6.69 percent in early August 2026. If you qualify on projected rental income rather than your own, that is a DSCR loan, commonly quoted at 6.25 to 8.00 percent this year, roughly half a point to two points above conventional, with short-term rental DSCR usually another 25 to 75 basis points on top. Lenders price that volatility for a reason. I am a real estate professional, not an attorney, so have a local attorney confirm the ordinance and covenants before you commit. I am Zoltan Peresztegi and I work in Los Angeles and the South Bay, so I am not the one to write your Lake County offer, but I would be glad to connect you with a strong northwest Indiana agent from my network who tracks which subdivisions allow this and which quietly do not. Zoltan


