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Are short-term rentals dead?

We've always wanted to buy a short-term rental home, but recently I've been seeing things like AirBnBust. Are short term rentals no longer profitable for new people entering the market?

Asked by Clayton | St John, IN| 03-06-2024| 806 views|Renting|Updated 2 years ago

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Zoltan PeresztegiReal Estate Agent2 months ago

Clayton, not dead, and the data since you asked has actually gone the other way. AirDNA forecasts U.S. short-term rental occupancy averaging 57.4 percent in 2026, slightly above the pre-pandemic average of 57.0 percent, with listings and demand both growing about 2.7 percent and RevPAR up roughly 2.9 percent on stronger nightly rates. That is a market that normalized, not one that collapsed. You asked in March 2024, peak "Airbnbust" news cycle. Coming out of 2021, listings piled in faster than travel demand grew, occupancy and revenue per available night compressed, and people who had underwritten 2021 numbers got hurt. By 2026 supply growth slowed to roughly match demand and operators got pricing power back. One dispersion note that matters to you: the strongest RevPAR growth this year is in markets where supply tightened, San Francisco up about 12 percent, while the heaviest new supply is expected in affordable small-city, rural and mid-size markets. Cheap entry price and crowded competition tend to arrive together. So the honest headline is not dead. It is that the easy money is gone and the underwriting has to be real. Here is the rule that has protected people through every cycle of this asset class. Never buy a short-term rental that only works at short-term rents. Price it so it still carries itself, or comes close, on long-term rent as a floor. If the deal needs 70 percent occupancy at premium nightly rates to survive, you have not bought a rental, you have bought a one-location hospitality business with a mortgage. Because the biggest risk here is not the travel market. It is regulation. A city council can vote your use out of existence and nobody compensates you. That is not a tail risk, it is the base case in dozens of markets. Here is the good news for you specifically. Indiana has a state statute on this, Indiana Code 36-1-24, that limits how far local governments can go. Under it, an owner occupied short term rental is a permitted residential use and cannot be disallowed by zoning in any district that allows residential use. For property that is not owner occupied, a town can require a special exception, special use or a zoning variance, but it cannot interpret or enforce zoning in a way intended to, or having the effect of, prohibiting or unreasonably restricting short term rentals. It also caps permits at one per property, expiring after a year, with the initial fee capped at 150 dollars, and defines a short term rental as one under thirty days through a rental platform. That is stronger footing than investors in most states have. But read the limit carefully: it restrains units of government, not your homeowners association. Private subdivision covenants routinely ban short-term rentals outright, and covenanted subdivisions are common around St John. So pull three documents before you write an offer, not after: the town's short-term rental ordinance and permit process, the recorded covenants and HOA rules for that subdivision, and the county's innkeeper tax registration requirements. Financing, briefly. Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed at 6.69 percent in early August 2026. If you qualify on projected rental income rather than your own, that is a DSCR loan, commonly quoted at 6.25 to 8.00 percent this year, roughly half a point to two points above conventional, with short-term rental DSCR usually another 25 to 75 basis points on top. Lenders price that volatility for a reason. I am a real estate professional, not an attorney, so have a local attorney confirm the ordinance and covenants before you commit. I am Zoltan Peresztegi and I work in Los Angeles and the South Bay, so I am not the one to write your Lake County offer, but I would be glad to connect you with a strong northwest Indiana agent from my network who tracks which subdivisions allow this and which quietly do not. Zoltan

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Michael AtkinsonReal Estate Agent4 months ago

Clayton, short-term rentals are not dead, but they are not as easy as they used to be. Profit depends heavily on the location, local rules, purchase price, demand, and expenses. I’d run the numbers very carefully and also compare it to a long-term rental before buying.

Juan PicosReal Estate Agent4 months ago

Not at all—but they're not as easy as they were a few years ago. Profitability now depends heavily on the location, local regulations, seasonality, competition, and your operating costs. Before buying, I'd analyze the property's expected occupancy, average nightly rates, expenses, and local short-term rental rules. In the right market, short-term rentals can still perform very well, but it's important to run the numbers rather than assume they'll generate strong cash flow.

Keith Jean PierreReal Estate Agent6 months ago

Clayton, this solely depends on your market but I will say, DO NOT purchase a short-term rental property based only on Airbnb. Regulations are everchanging and short-term rentals can end overnight, ensure you have a backup plan. Keith Jean-Pierre Managing Principal The Dapper Agents Operations In: NY, NJ, FL & CA

Kevin NeelyReal Estate Agent6 months ago

This is a common question among Florida buyers and sellers, and the answer depends on your specific situation and local market conditions. Understanding the fundamentals before making any decisions protects your investment and your timeline. In Citrus Springs, Citrus County, Florida, the real estate landscape has its own characteristics that affect how this plays out in practice. The Citrus County market attracts a diverse buyer pool including relocators from higher-cost states, retirees, and local move-up buyers, which creates consistent demand across most price points and property types. The strategic approach is to work with a local agent who can pull current comparable sales data and walk you through the specific factors that apply to your situation in Florida. Every market is different at the neighborhood level, and decisions based on general advice or national headlines often miss the local nuances that matter most to your outcome. Making informed decisions based on local data is always the strongest position. Kevin Neely & Kaitlynd Robbins | K2 Sells

Barrett HenryReal Estate Agent7 months ago

They're not dead, but the easy money era is over. The market has matured and the margins have tightened, which means you have to be smarter about it now than you did in 2020 or 2021. What happened is that a flood of new hosts entered the market during and after COVID when short-term rental income was insane. Supply caught up with demand in a lot of markets, and now many hosts are competing for fewer bookings at lower nightly rates. Add in rising property prices, higher interest rates, increased insurance costs, and local regulations cracking down on STRs, and the math doesn't work as easily as it used to. That doesn't mean it's a bad investment. It means you have to pick the right market, the right property, and run the numbers conservatively. Markets with year-round tourism demand, limited hotel inventory, and STR-friendly regulations still perform well. Markets that are oversaturated with Airbnbs or have enacted strict STR ordinances are much harder to make work. Before you buy, research the local STR regulations in whatever market you're considering. Some cities have banned or heavily restricted short-term rentals. Others require expensive permits and limit the number of days you can rent per year. Run your projected income using actual comp data from AirDNA or Mashvisor, not from the host's claimed income or a best-case scenario. And always run a backup scenario where you convert to a long-term rental, because if the STR market softens further in your area, you need an exit strategy that still cash flows.

Lisa And Greg HarrisReal Estate Agent2 years ago

I would consult a local REALTOR to get te answer to this for the specifics of the area that you are looking to buy! Here on Lake Murray, SC I have 2 investors that are buying them and having great success! But there are areas, that have fallen under great restrictions and it depends on where they are located and the county or neighborhood rules.

Christina BrooksReal Estate Agent2 years ago
Novice2 Answers

Hello Carlos. It really depends on where you are hoping to purchase the STR. Many areas have regulations now and you need permits, etc. However, I personally own a STR and we are still doing well. I hope that helps! Best to you.

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